Department of War's Next Big Conflicts Could Be Within

Department of War's Next Big Conflicts Could Be Within

A growing chorus of U.S. government assessments and official statements points to a sobering reality: the most pressing threats to national security may originate from within the country's borders. Recent reports from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and directives from the White House underscore the elevated risk of domestic violent extremism, political violence, and potential civil unrest, particularly in the wake of the contentious 2024 election cycle. Yet, as the U.S. navigates these internal fractures, external flashpoints—particularly in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific—threaten to erupt into conflicts that could draw America into multi-front warfare. While the Department of War — focuses traditionally on external adversaries, its role in supporting domestic stability could become pivotal if internal divisions escalate, even as it braces for potential showdowns with Iran and China. Below we analyze official U.S. government documents, authorized news reports, and expert analyses, highlighting the factors fueling fears of both internal strife and a broader global conflagration.

The Heightened Domestic Threat Landscape

The 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment (HTA), released by DHS on September 30, 2024, paints a stark picture of a "high terrorism threat environment" in the United States, driven primarily by domestic violent extremists (DVEs). The report identifies DVEs as individuals or groups motivated by racial, religious, gender, anti-government grievances, conspiracy theories, or personalized factors, often operating as lone actors or small cells with minimal warning. Between September 2023 and July 2024, DVEs conducted at least four attacks in the Homeland, resulting in one death, while law enforcement disrupted seven additional plots. Targets included ethnic and religious minorities, government officials, ideological opponents, and communities affected by international events like the Israel-HAMAS conflict.A key concern in the HTA is the vulnerability of the 2024 election cycle, extending through Inauguration Day in January 2025, which is described as an "attractive target" for DVEs and foreign malign influence actors. The assessment notes that anti-government or partisan-motivated DVEs pose the most significant physical threat, potentially targeting voters, candidates, election workers, polling places, and vote-counting sites to instill fear and disrupt processes. Disruptive tactics such as hoax bomb threats, swatting, doxxing, and mailing suspicious substances have surged, with expectations of further increases around Election Day. Foreign actors, including those from Russia, Iran, and China, are amplifying divisive narratives through generative AI and synthetic media to exacerbate social tensions and undermine electoral integrity.Public officials face escalating risks, with DVEs and transnational actors targeting them over grievances related to immigration, court cases, or foreign policy. For instance, Iran continues to pursue plots against U.S. officials linked to the 2020 killing of IRGC-Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, as evidenced by an August 2024 indictment of a Pakistani national with Iranian ties for planned assassinations. The report warns that these threats could compound with broader societal factors, such as climate change-induced migration and natural disasters, straining resources and fueling grievances that might lead to unrest.Critical infrastructure is also at risk, with DVEs and foreign terrorist organizations calling for attacks on sectors like energy, transportation, and healthcare to advance ideological goals or respond to global conflicts. Over the past year, actors have targeted electric grid substations with firearms, causing localized disruptions. The HTA emphasizes that DVEs are the most likely nonstate perpetrators of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks, with 18 known incidents in the last year, four politically motivated.

White House Response: Designating and Countering Internal Threats

In direct response to these escalating dangers, President Donald J. Trump issued National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-7 on September 25, 2025, titled "Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence." The directive frames recent acts—including the assassination of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, a 2024 healthcare executive killing, attempts on Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2022, and two 2024 attempts on the President's life—as part of coordinated campaigns by groups embracing "anti-fascist" ideologies that promote violence to achieve policy goals. It highlights an over 1,000% increase in attacks on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers since January 21, 2025, compared to the previous year, including riots in Los Angeles and Portland causing billions in damage.The memorandum tasks the National Joint Terrorism Task Force with leading investigations into radicalization networks, funding sources, and foreign-linked actors, while directing the Attorney General to prosecute related crimes aggressively and designate qualifying groups as domestic terrorist organizations. It builds on a September 22, 2025, order designating Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization and emphasizes disrupting financial networks through the Treasury Department and IRS. This approach treats political violence as a national priority, allocating grants for law enforcement to prevent and respond to threats.

The Middle East Powder Keg: Gaza, Iran, and the Risk of Regional Eruption

As domestic tensions simmer, the Middle East looms as a tinderbox where unresolved conflicts could ignite a devastating war, pulling the U.S. into direct confrontation with Iran before it can fully pivot to the Indo-Pacific. The ongoing Gaza crisis, exacerbated by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and led to over 66,000 Palestinian deaths, has evolved into a broader proxy battle involving Iran-backed groups. President Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan, unveiled in late September 2025, aims to end hostilities through hostage releases, Hamas disarmament, and an international stabilization force led by Arab partners. Both Israel and Hamas have signaled willingness to negotiate, with Hamas agreeing to release all hostages in exchange for prisoners, though gaps remain on Israeli withdrawal and governance.However, if peace fails, Israel has approved plans to seize Gaza City, potentially displacing up to 800,000 civilians and escalating the conflict into a full occupation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to disarm Hamas "the easy way or the hard way," framing it as liberation rather than conquest. The UN has warned this could trigger "another horrific chapter," with forced displacements worsening the humanitarian catastrophe. Such a move risks igniting the Islamic world, as Hamas has pledged "fierce resistance," and could provoke Iran—already weakened but defiant—to launch renewed attacks on Israel.The June 2025 Iran-Israel war, a 12-day exchange of strikes that killed over 1,100 Iranians and 29 Israelis, underscores this volatility. Triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites on June 13, the conflict saw Iran fire over 400 missiles, exploiting gaps in Israel's defenses and causing significant damage. The U.S. intervened on June 22, bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities, before brokering a ceasefire on June 24. Iranian officials now claim "victory," vowing harsher responses, while rebuilding ballistic missile capabilities with reported Chinese assistance, including sodium perchlorate for solid fuels. U.S. intelligence warns of Iranian preparations for escalation, including succession planning amid fears of renewed strikes.A Gaza takeover could cascade: Iran might retaliate directly, as it did in June, or through proxies like the Houthis, who view U.S. actions as a "declaration of war." This aligns with broader U.S. concerns; the Council on Foreign Relations notes Iran's "axis of resistance" has been degraded but remains a threat, with over 200 attacks on U.S. forces since October 2023. Experts fear a "confluence of factors," per the HTA, where Middle East unrest—fueled by Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria—compounds domestic vulnerabilities, straining U.S. resources before a potential China pivot.

Global Realignments: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Shadow of China

Complicating this landscape are shifting alliances in South Asia, where U.S. efforts to counter China intersect with Middle East dynamics. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state historically aligned with China, has backed Trump's Gaza plan alongside Indonesia and Arab nations, drawing domestic backlash as "treasonous" for implicitly recognizing Israel without Palestinian statehood. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar clarified Pakistan endorsed an earlier Arab-Muslim draft, not the final U.S. version allowing Israeli buffer zones. In a potential quid pro quo, the U.S. is pushing to reclaim Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, abandoned in 2021, citing its proximity to Chinese nuclear sites—about an hour's flight away.President Trump has demanded the Taliban return Bagram, threatening "bad things" if refused, as part of a strategy to project power against Beijing. Unverified reports suggest U.S. intelligence visits in April 2025, though the Taliban denies any presence. Securing Bagram would checkmate China's Belt and Road investments in Afghan minerals and infrastructure, especially if Pakistan—facing economic woes and a $30 billion Chinese debt—tilts toward Washington. Analysts note Pakistan's "three godfathers" (U.S., China, Saudi Arabia) strain its balancing act; a U.S.-Pakistan thaw, including counter-terrorism pacts and arms deals, could erode Beijing's influence, particularly after China's limited support in the 2025 India-Pakistan skirmish.This realignment signals U.S. preparations for war with China post-Ukraine, with the Pentagon warning of conflict by 2025-2032 over Taiwan. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan's 2023 memo urged readiness for 2025, echoed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 2025 Shangri-La speech: "We are preparing for war" in the Indo-Pacific. Ukraine's drain on munitions—$50 billion in aid—highlights industrial base vulnerabilities, with 45,000 suppliers China-dependent. Tariffs and decoupling aim to mitigate this, but experts like Mackenzie Eaglen warn of the "terrible 20s" for aging U.S. hardware. A Middle East flare-up could force a two-front war, as Brookings notes, with Iran distracting from Taiwan.

Broader Warnings and Perspectives

U.S. intelligence agencies have noted a rise in online discussions among DVEs about preparations for an "imminent civil war," as detailed in a DHS memo. The National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) bulletin from June 22, 2025, warns of a heightened threat environment fueled by misleading narratives, conspiracy theories, and foreign amplification, with lone actors posing persistent risks. International conflicts, such as the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, could inspire additional attacks, including those motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiments.Experts and commentators have echoed these concerns. Civil war scholar Barbara F. Walter has warned that America is on the brink, citing indicators like political polarization and anocracy (partial democracy). Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio estimates a 35-40% risk of civil war, placing the U.S. in a "pre-civil war stage" characterized by potential state defiance of federal authority and contested elections. A former CIA agent has claimed the agency is preparing for post-election secession scenarios, with states like Texas potentially closing borders. Public polling reflects this anxiety, with 41% of voters believing a civil war is likely within five years.However, not all analyses agree on the severity. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report argues that the risk of a full-scale civil war—defined as armed conflict with 1,000 battlefield deaths—is negligible, as it would require prolonged organized violence, military defections, and economic collapse. Another CSIS analysis notes that attacks on government targets motivated by partisan beliefs have nearly tripled in the past five years compared to the previous 25, but fatalities remain low due to security measures. Global risk assessments, such as Allianz Commercial's 2025 report, highlight political violence as a top business concern, driven by elections, geopolitical upheaval, and economic uncertainty, but emphasize its localized impacts rather than nationwide conflict.Geopolitically, the EU Institute for Security Studies warns the June 2025 Israel-Iran war has left escalation risks "dangerously high," with Europe urged to mediate.

Implications for National Security and Unity

The convergence of these threats—amplified by online radicalization, foreign interference, sociopolitical divisions, and cascading Middle East conflicts—suggests that the "next big conflict" could manifest internally or erupt abroad, challenging the fabric of American democracy and global primacy. The Department of Defense, while primarily outward-facing, may increasingly support DHS and FBI efforts through intelligence sharing and infrastructure protection, even as it reallocates resources from Ukraine to deter China. As the HTA executive summary states, "We are particularly concerned about a confluence of factors this year, including violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments—especially the 2024 election cycle—and international events."To mitigate these risks, government initiatives like the Nonprofit Security Grant Program, which awarded over $450 million in 2024 for target hardening, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) resources for active shooter and bombing prevention are crucial. Transparent communication on election integrity and combating misinformation are also recommended to prevent violence inspired by conspiracy theories. Diplomatic pushes, such as Trump's Gaza plan and Bagram negotiations, aim to avert multi-front wars, but experts urge industrial base reforms—ramping munitions to 2 million rounds annually by 2025—and NATO's 5% GDP defense pledge by 2035. Ultimately, addressing root causes such as polarization, economic disparity, and over-reliance on China-dependent supply chains will be essential to averting a self-inflicted or externally imposed crisis. As history shows, the greatest threats to empires often come from within—or from unchecked ambitions without—America must heed these warnings to preserve its union and deter global chaos.

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