9/18/2025

Top lethal weapons India needs to develop imminently to assert & protect its strategic autonomy.

This analysis explores a purely hypothetical event of a full-scale conflict between India and any aggressor Superpower in near future, assuming escalation from regional tensions or due to BRICS+ or Geopolitical friction from RIC alliance formation or due to India's increased economic power. India would require deterrence achieving air/sea superiority,protecting its trade routes, neutralizing enemy power projection, and minimizing homeland damage through asymmetric advantages in hypersonics, stealth, space & sea denials. India's current arsenal (e.g., Rafale, S-400, BrahMos) provides a foundation, adversaried have stealth bombers,preparing 6th-gen fighter jets, H-20, J-35, and expanded hypersonics — demand rapid Indian advancements. Weapons being developed by these superpowers can come into direct confrontation with India in event of a war with countries like Pakistan ( if supplied ) as seen in operation Sindoor. Moreover, Successive U.S administrations and their domestic politics can sway a ruling president to tilt towards Pakistan and supply lethal weapons or even China. In such scenario Mother India would be left with no options but to fallback at herself for weapons and defense supplies.


Key assumptions:

  1. Hypersonics,Stealth penetration,Ballistics & Cruise.
  2. Indian Path to detterrence: Emphasize indigenous production (Atmanirbhar Bharat), alliances (QUAD for U.S. scenario), and disruptive tech (hypersonics, ASAT).
  3. Deterrence Metrics: > 80% interception of inbound threats, 70%+ strike success on enemy assets, Sea & space denial to blind ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance).


Analysis:

India must prioritize offensive disruption (hypersonics/ASAT to blind/strike first) and defensive resilience (stealth detection, layered shields).

  1. Missiles (Core for Power Projection):
  2. Hypersonics Priority: Accelerate BrahMos-II (joint Indo-Russian, Zircon-based) to vs China DF-17.
  3. South China Sea denial: Integrate with Su-30MKI/Tejas Mk2 for rapid salvoes (Mach 8, 95% penetration).
  4. Ballistic Upgrades: MIRV Agni-VI (8,000+ km, 10 warheads) for deterrence; Shaurya hypersonic variant for tactical strikes.
  5. Impact: Overwhelm counter attack achieving 80% attrition in first 48 hours.
  6. Aircraft (Air Superiority Enablers):
  7. Fighters: Fast-track AMCA Mk1 (stealth, supercruise) to 100 units by 2028, pairing with 200 Tejas Mk2 (Uttam AESA radar, Meteor integration). Use for BVR dominance (85% kill rate via PL-15 equiv. Astra Mk3).
  8. Upgrade Su-30MKI with BrahMos-NG for standoff bombing.
  9. Impact: Maintain 30+ squadrons.
  10. Defending Against Stealth Bombers :
  11. Layered Air Defense: Deploy Project Kusha (DRDO's S-500 analog) with 20 batteries, featuring quantum radars (detect RCS <0.001 m² at 200 km) and Mach 7 interceptors (AD-2). Integrate with S-500 imports (if Russia supplies) and Akash-NG for terminal phase.
  12. Sensor Fusion: IRST on Rafale/Tejas + AWACS upgrades (Netra Mk2) for non-radar detection; AI for cueing (80% success vs. stealth).
  13. Impact: Deny penetration over Andamans/Himalayas, forcing high-altitude standoff (vulnerable to BrahMos-II).
  14. Anti-Satellite and Space Denial:
  15. ASAT Expansion: Upgrade Mission Shakti to directed-energy (lasers for non-kinetic kills) and co-orbital (killer satellites via PSLV).
  16. Counter-Space: EMP-hardened Indian sats (GSAT series) + anti-jamming (quantum comms).
  17. Impact: Cripple early warnings or tracking, buying time for hypersonic first strikes.
  18. Other Advanced Weapons (Asymmetric Edges):
  19. Drones/Swarms: 500+ loitering munitions (Nagastra upgrades) for saturation.
  20. DEW: 100 kW lasers (DRDO) on ships/ground for drone/missile intercepts (50% cost savings vs. missiles).
  21. Naval Integration: BrahMos-II on INS Vikrant carriers; ASW drones vs. U.S./China subs.

Strategic Deterrence:

  1. ASAT to disrupt logistics. Hypersonics targets. Outcome: Force withdrawal via attrition.
  2. Himalayan terrain favors defenses (Kusha intercepts H-20); BrahMos-II/YJ-21 parity in IOR. ASAT blinds Beidou for border superiority. Outcome: Secure LAC, isolate Taiwan ops.
  3. Challenges/Risks: Supply chain (Russia for engines); Cyber vulnerabilities. Mitigate via tech advancements.
  4. Overall Probability: With upgrades, 60-70% strategic parity; without, <30% due to superpowers scaling development.


This scenario underscores deterrence over conflict—India's focus on Hypersonics/ASAT/Indian Ocean Denials aligns with global trends for "no-first-use" stability.