9/18/2025

Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact: A Strategic Move Targeting Israel and India.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have formalized a mutual security pact. The Pact says that any attack on either country will be considered an attack on both. This formalize the way to use of Pakistani nuclear weapons to defend the Saudi Arabia.

For Saudis its one way street to use Pakistani weapons & Pakistan Army as cannon fodder, more targetted against Israel and Iran less about India. For pakistan its more about targeting India and diplomatically tearing off India's relationship with Saudis.

Overall Saudis seems to have ignored India's concerns in this matter for long run.

Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact: Forging a Shield in Turbulent Times

In a bold geopolitical chess move amid rising Middle East tensions, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have inked a landmark mutual defense pact on September 17, 2025, Their Vision seems like: Two nations, one is Oil rich Wealthy Kingdom, a guardian of Islam's holiest sites and the other with a nuclear bombs but ready to eat grass to survive in South Asia, pledging that an attack on either is an assault on both—like a modern-day NATO clause tailored for the region's volatile sands and borders. It seems a strategic pivot that echoes historical bonds while navigating contemporary storms, primarily eyeing threats from Israel and subtly rippling toward India, but without derailing Riyadh's robust ties with New Delhi.


The Pact's Core: A Mutual Vow of Protection

At its heart, the agreement declares, "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," as outlined in official statements from Pakistan's Foreign Affairs Ministry and the Saudi Press Agency. Signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Riyadh, it aims to "develop aspects of defense cooperation and strengthen joint deterrence.

No explicit nuclear provisions are mentioned, but the pact's timing amplifies whispers of Saudi access to Pakistan's atomic arsenal, which was partly funded by Riyadh in the past, as detailed in historical accounts like retired Brig. Gen. Feroz Hassan Khan's book on Pakistan's bomb program.

For Saudi Arabia, this could serve as a deterrent shadow, especially as Crown Prince Mohammed has openly stated the Kingdom would pursue nukes if Iran does—adding a layer of creative brinkmanship to regional power plays.

Saudi Perspective: A Deterrent Against Middle East Shadows

From Riyadh's viewpoint, this pact seems a one-way defense street and a fortified highway of mutual benefit, primarily aimed at countering Israeli actions and Yemen's Houthis ( & Iran) amid escalating conflicts. Coming hot on the heels of Israel's offensives across Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, and beyond since October 2023, it's a signal flare: Saudi Arabia, long reliant on U.S. security umbrellas, is diversifying its defenses. Pakistan's battle-hardened army—over 600,000 strong—and nuclear capabilities offer a ready ally, not only as "cannon fodder" but as a partner in safeguarding holy sites and oil-rich territories.

It's creative realpolitik: borrowing Pakistan's strength to deter aggressors like Israel & Yemen, while pursuing civilian nuclear tech from the U.S., potentially enriching uranium for dual-use futures. Yet, Saudi officials emphasize this isn't targeted aggression—it's about stability in a powder-keg region.

Pakistan's Angle: Bolstering Borders and Diplomacy

For Islamabad, the pact injects economic and military adrenaline into its veins, with Saudi investments already flowing like desert oases (think $25 billion in recent pledges). While it subtly enhances deterrence against arch-rival India—Pakistan's nukes were born from that rivalry. In event of a war between India and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia will never intervene militarily, instead Saudis will stick to diplomatically or economically and hardly any military action against India. Pakistan's military strength will not bolster against India by this treaty , it merely makes India - Saudi relations cautious. Moreover, this pact will push Pakistan against Israel, Iran and Yemen. Pakistan will get sandwiched between U.S. hegemony, Israel and middle east alliances with already getting hit hard from eastern borders.

Pakistan's desperate diplomatic jabs at India keep missing the mark.

Far from "tearing off" India's Saudi ties, it's a reminder of multipolar alliances where nations juggle multiple partners without burning bridges.

India, watching from afar, has responded with measured poise, stating it will "study the implications" while remaining "committed to protecting national interests."

New Delhi was aware of brewing discussions and views this as a formalization of an "old alliance," not a direct threat.

Crucially, Saudi Arabia has reassured that "our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been," with no shift in ties.

Bilateral bonds thrive: Saudi military delegations attended Aero India 2025, trade hits $100 billion annually, and investments in Indian infrastructure soar.

For Riyadh Pact seems a parallel track, ensuring Gulf stability benefits all, including energy-hungry India. In this intricate web, the deal fosters deterrence without fracturing friendships, proving diplomacy's art lies in balancing shields and handshakes.This pact isn't a zero-sum game; it's a creative evolution of alliances, blending history, strategy, and foresight to weather global tempests—ensuring peace through preparedness, not provocation.

Yemen Angle : Probability (40-60%). Pakistan offered targeted aid in the Kingdom's 2015 Yemen push, such as maritime patrols and skill-building, though lawmakers blocked deeper combat roles to sidestep sinkholes. Now, should Houthis ( militias ) strike Saudi territory outright—as seen in aerial raids—the pact could spark supportive roles, like securing frontiers or bolstering radar networks. Detractors jest it's Islamabad volunteering for Yemen airstrikes, yet specialists view it as bounded: Pakistan has the chops but little appetite for boots-in-mud entanglements, with its gaze fixed on eastern threats over perpetual desert campaigns.

Iran Angle: Probability ( 30%-40% ). This remains the arrangement's high-stakes unknown, fraught with complications. Pakistan borders Iran along a tricky frontier some times marred with conflict about terrorism in border areas. Still Riyadh signaled to Tehran that the pact avoids direct aims at them ( read indirect via Yemen ), with the Saudi defense chief engaging Iranian counterparts right before the ink dried. In event of a Conflict involving Saudis and Iranians, Pakistan will be in tight position , because Iranins can Attack Pakistan on border disabling it at home without initiating any help to Saudis.Similarly any co-ordinated attack on Yemen by Saudis and Pakistanis may provoke Iranians on Border putting Pakistan in a catch-22 position

Yemen and Iran: Israel's sworn nemeses. This treaty yanks Pakistan into their hostile fold—handing a triple win to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the U.S.