The coming China-Pakistan friction

The Coming China-Pakistan Friction & Rare Earths in Balochistan

Analysis by Mittree.com Strategic Team – In this updated assessment, our team examines how escalating U.S.-China tensions over rare earths, intertwined with Trump's aggressive tariff policies and anti-BRICS rhetoric, are accelerating a potential realignment in South Asian geopolitics. Pakistan's overtures to the U.S. for Balochistan's mineral resources risk fracturing its "all-weather" alliance with China under CPEC, while the Pakistan-Afghanistan border conflict serves as a flashpoint that could draw U.S. forces back into the region—potentially via Bagram Airbase. Regional powers' unified opposition signals a multipolar pushback, with implications for a broader Asian alliance excluding Pakistan. Ground realities, including insurgent threats and economic pressures, underscore the fragility of these dynamics.

Pakistan is inviting U.S. investment in Balochistan's rare earth mining while deepening CPEC ties with China for Gwadar port and infrastructure. This dual engagement, amid U.S. efforts to counter China's 80-90% global dominance in rare earth processing, positions Pakistan as a pivotal but precarious player. As of October 2025, the first U.S.-bound shipment of enriched rare earth samples from Pasni port has ignited domestic backlash, with PTI demanding transparency on sovereignty risks. U.S. interest extends to strategic access near Iran, mirroring past logistics for Afghanistan operations, but now amplified by Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on China—triggered by Beijing's export curbs on rare earths and magnets, effective November 1. If friction with China mounts, Pakistan's pivot could render Beijing a "loser" in CPEC, prompting a reevaluation of ties and outreach to India for RIC (Russia-India-China) stability.

Analysis by Mittree.com Strategic Team – The rare earths trade war's progression—now a flashpoint in U.S.-China decoupling—highlights China's leverage, with new licensing requirements for exports containing over 0.1% rare earths or using Chinese tech, explicitly barring military applications. Trump's response, vowing 100% tariffs "over and above" existing rates, risks devastating U.S. defense firms reliant on these minerals for F-35 jets and missiles. Pakistan's $500M MoU with U.S. Strategic Metals, including Phase 1 exports of antimony, copper, and REEs, signals Islamabad's alignment with Washington to diversify from China—potentially drawing Pakistan into a U.S.-led bloc if conflict erupts. Yet, Baloch insurgencies threaten viability, as seen in recent BLA attacks on CPEC sites, which killed 13 in October.

Rare Earth Deposits in Balochistan: Potential and Challenges

Balochistan remains Pakistan's mineral powerhouse, with untapped REEs like bastnaesite and monazite in Chagai and Khuzdar, alongside copper-gold at Reko Diq (5.9B tonnes ore, yielding $28M+ royalties by mid-2025). National estimates peg overall wealth at $6-8T across 90+ minerals, including lithium and cobalt vital for EVs and defense. Security woes persist: BLA's sophisticated attacks, including a March 2025 train hijacking and October convoy strikes, disrupt operations, while water scarcity—extraction could consume 40% of local supplies—fuels local unrest. Pakistan's 2025 mining laws centralize federal control via MIFA, but insurgency and infrastructure gaps limit exploitation. Chinese media frames CPEC as synergistic, yet omits U.S. deals, hinting at brewing tensions.

Pakistan's Engagement with the U.S. on Rare Earth Mining

Pakistan's diversification push intensified in September 2025 with the $500M MoU for antimony, copper, gold, tungsten, and REEs, culminating in the October Pasni shipment—sparking PTI's "secret deal" uproar. PM Sharif pitched this to Trump, alongside Pasni port ($1.2B proposal) for Central Asian access, bypassing China/Iran. U.S. webinars and State Department promotion align with decoupling goals, but Baloch resistance warns of escalation. As Trump threatens BRICS nations with tariffs for "attacking the USD," Pakistan's U.S. tilt—despite no BRICS dropout—positions it as a U.S. proxy in rare earths, risking Chinese retaliation.

Analysis by Mittree.com Strategic Team – The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, with Pakistani drone strikes destroying Taliban tanks in Khost (October 2025), acts as a precursor for U.S. re-entry. Border clashes, displacing refugees and fueling TTP/BLA, provide cover for Trump's Bagram demands—citing proximity to Chinese nukes. U.S. MQ-9 Reapers recon near Afghan-Iran borders signal preparation. If Pakistan facilitates (e.g., via Munir-Trump pacts), it aligns with U.S. against China/Russia; Taliban rejections and Humvee "trophies" at Bagram underscore resistance. Iran's Chabahar investments and Russia's Taliban delisting counter this, while India's "no" to U.S. bases preserves neutrality. Instability could complicate U.S. plans and entangle US in Afghanistan again. Iran could forced to come openly in Afghanistan' support.

China's Role via CPEC and Emerging Frictions

CPEC's $62B in Balochistan—Gwadar, energy, mining—faces BLA escalation, with 2024-2025 attacks killing Chinese workers. Beijing's silence on U.S. REE deals belies concerns, as Pasni rivals Gwadar. China's rare earth curbs—halting military exports—escalate, prompting Trump's 100% tariff vow and software bans, rattling markets (S&P -2%). If Pakistan defects, CPEC collapse could force China to abandon it, seeking Indian cooperation on borders/Pakistan containment.

Geopolitical Dimensions: Access to Iran and Broader Strategy

Pasni's proposal enables U.S. surveillance/logistics near Iran, akin to past Afghan ops. Pakistan denies bases, but Saudi's September 2025 defense pact—pledging mutual aid—bolsters Islamabad against Afghan spillover. Iran's opposition to Bagram, via Moscow Format, aligns with China's anti-U.S. stance. Afghan Taliban rejects U.S. return, emphasizing sovereignty.

Analysis by Mittree.com Strategic Team – Unified Moscow Format opposition (October 7, 2025)—India, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Central Asia—deems foreign bases "unacceptable," signaling anti-U.S. consensus. Russia's asset unfreeze calls and China's Taliban invites counter Trump; India's Muttaqi visit (October 9-16) hedges bets. If rare earths spark direct U.S.-China conflict, Pakistan's U.S. alignment could isolate it, paving RIC revival—abandoning Pakistan for an anti-Western bloc.

Potential Shifts: China-Pakistan Friction May Lead to India-China Alignment

In this current geopolical shifts, China-India common interest and strategic goals seems to be converging while Pakistan and US interests aligning, The Escalating frictions could prompt CPEC cutoff, with China pivoting via Wang Yi's September 2025 India visit for border thaw. RIC bolstered by Russia; Taiwan heats, but Asian alliance counters West. Pakistan's post-CPEC irrelevance to China grows, as Beijing eyes Afghanistan and India for stability. Afghan Foreign minister Muttaqi's India visit seems tacit undersstanding by Russia and China fully.

Analysis by Mittree.com Strategic Team – Facts on ground—U.S. tariffs/Bagram push, Pakistan's REE exports/Afghan strikes, China's curbs/Russian mediation, India's denial/Iranian Chabahar, Afghan sovereignty—signal Pakistan's U.S. lean could end in isolation. A RIC-led Asian bloc, marginalizing Pakistan, emerges as viable counter to Western dominance.