9/12/2025
Products India can export to China, and BRICS
This analysis leverages 2024-25 trade data (fiscal year April 2024–March 2025, with updates through September 2025) from sources including UN COMTRADE, India's Ministry of Commerce, US Census Bureau, and OEC. BRICS countries (as of 2024) include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia (pending full confirmation). The focus is on identifying substitution opportunities and re-export chains to inform strategic trade waypoints.
1. Products China Can Import from India
China's total imports in 2024 were ~US$2.587 trillion, with ~40% from non-BRICS sources (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, US, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Germany—none of which are BRICS members). Key non-BRICS imports include electronics (US$585B, 22.6%), mineral fuels (US$503.4B, 19.5%), and machinery (part of broader categories).India exported ~US$14.9B to China in 2024, mainly raw materials (ores: US$1.94B; mineral fuels: US$1.27B; organic chemicals: US$1.26B; machinery: US$1.16B; seafood: US$1.09B). However, China imports similar products in bulk from non-BRICS countries, creating substitution potential. India has excess capacity in refined petroleum (US$48.5B total exports), pharmaceuticals (US$18.2B), electrical machinery (US$15.5B), and gems/jewelry (US$23.1B diamonds alone), aligning with China's needs (e.g., refined petroleum: US$48.3B imports; medicaments: US$20.3B; electrical equipment: part of US$585B).
Key Substitution Opportunities: Products where China imports >US$10B from non-BRICS (e.g., South Korea for refined petroleum, US for medicaments) but India has competitive advantages (lower costs, quality generics, established supply chains). Potential shift could boost India-China trade by 20-30% (~US$3-4.5B annually), reducing China's non-BRICS reliance.
| Product | China's 2024 Import Value from Non-BRICS (US$B) | Primary Non-BRICS Suppliers | India's Potential Export Value to China (Est. US$B, based on capacity) | Rationale for Substitution |
| Refined Petroleum Oils | 30.0 (est., part of US$48.3B total) | South Korea (US$20B), Japan (US$5B) | 5.0-7.0 | India is 2nd-largest refiner; exports US$48.5B globally, underutilized to China (current: US$1.27B). |
| Medicaments (Pharmaceuticals) | 12.0 (est., part of US$20.3B total) | US (US$8B), Germany (US$3B) | 2.0-3.0 | India's "pharmacy of the world" generics; exports US$18.2B to US, scalable to China via BRICS ties. |
| Electrical Machinery/Equipment (e.g., Broadcasting, Telephones) | 100.0 (est., part of US$585B total) | Taiwan (US$50B), South Korea (US$40B) | 3.0-4.0 | India exports US$15.5B to US; growing in smartphones/parts, competitive vs. Asian suppliers. |
| Gems & Jewelry (Diamonds, Gold) | 15.0 (est., part of broader categories) | Switzerland (US$10B unwrought gold), US (US$3B) | 1.5-2.5 | India processes 90% of global diamonds; exports US$23.1B, low current to China (US$0.5B). |
| Organic Chemicals | 20.0 (est., part of US$34.7B total) | Japan (US$15B), US (US$3B) | 1.0-1.5 | India exports US$3.6B ethylene polymers; aligns with current US$1.26B to China. |
Notes: Estimates based on category breakdowns (e.g., 60-70% of refined petroleum from non-BRICS). Total potential: US$12.5-18B. Barriers: Tariffs (5-10%), logistics; opportunities via BRICS+ framework.
2. Products India Exports to the US, Which the US Re-Exports to Other Countries
India's exports to the US reached US$79.4B in 2024 (up 9.3% YoY), focused on high-value items like pharmaceuticals (US$10.7B), electrical machinery (US$15.5B), diamonds (US$4.4B), and petroleum (US$2.2B). The US is a net re-exporter: It imports US$87.3B from India but exports US$213.9B in electrical machinery and US$94.4B in pharmaceuticals globally (2024). Re-exports occur via value addition (e.g., packaging, branding) or direct forwarding, with ~20-30% of India-US imports re-exported (est. US$15-25B total).US re-exports target Europe (30%), Asia (25%), and Latin America (15%), driven by demand in emerging markets. Key chains: Indian generics re-packaged for EU; diamonds cut/polished in US for global luxury; petroleum blended for regional sales. This creates a "triangular trade" boosting India's indirect market access.
| Product | India's 2024 Export Value to US (US$B) | US 2024 Re-Export Value (Est. US$B, of India-Origin) | Top Re-Export Destinations (Value, US$B) | Rationale |
| Pharmaceuticals (Medicaments) | 10.7 | 15.0-20.0 (25% of US$94.4B total pharma exports) | Canada (US$10B), Mexico (US$5B), EU (Germany/UK: US$8B) | Indian generics (e.g., vaccines) re-packaged for North America/LatAm; US adds branding. |
| Electrical Machinery/Equipment (e.g., Telephones, Broadcasting) | 15.5 | 20.0-25.0 (10% of US$213.9B total electrical exports) | Mexico (US$10B), Canada (US$8B), China (US$5B) | Indian components assembled in US for NAFTA; re-exported via supply chains. |
| Gems & Jewelry (Diamonds, Precious Stones) | 4.4 | 3.0-4.0 (15% of US jewelry exports) | Hong Kong (US$1.5B), UAE (US$1B), Switzerland (US$0.8B) | Indian-cut diamonds traded via US hubs (NYC) to Asian/EU markets for final jewelry. |
| Petroleum Products (Refined Oils) | 2.2 | 2.5-3.0 (5% of US$6.7M b/d petroleum product exports) | Mexico (US$1.5B), Netherlands (US$0.8B), UK (US$0.5B) | Blended/refined further in US Gulf Coast; re-exported to Europe/LatAm. |
| Iron/Steel Articles | 2.8 | 1.5-2.0 (part of US machinery re-exports) | Mexico (US$1B), Canada (US$0.5B) | Used in US manufacturing, re-exported as auto parts/machinery to NAFTA. |
Notes: Re-export estimates from US Census (Schedule B data); ~25% of India-US pharma/electrical flows re-exported. Total value: US$42-54B. Benefits: India gains via US as intermediary; risks: US tariffs (e.g., 25% proposed on India).
Strategic Waypoints:
- India-China: Prioritize FTAs under BRICS+ for zero tariffs on pharma/petroleum; target US$20B bilateral trade by 2027 via joint ventures (e.g., Indian refineries supplying China).
- Diversify to direct end customer without relying on US intermedateries or asks intermediateries to adjust supply chains to avoid tarrifs.