9/26/2025
Trump's open alignment with Pakistan is Confirmation of US Hidden Policy Shift Against India
Trump's open alignment with Pakistan is Confirmation of US Policy Shift in South Asia with backdoor arms flowing to Pakistan that most likely will be used against India. Pakistan asked for new F16s by 2026. Pakistan Also asked for F-35 stealth jets ( trump quipped ). Most likely ready to aid pakistan with est. One Billion in various aid by 2026 like anti-terrorist operations. Pakistan Offered US rare earth minerals to neutralize effects of China's controls on rare earths.
President Donald Trump's second-term engagement with Pakistan, including high-level meetings with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir in September 2025, marks the most significant US pivot toward Islamabad since the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War. This alignment, characterized by praise for Pakistani leaders as "great guys" and the signing of economic pacts, coincides with escalating US-India tensions over trade imbalances, India's continued purchases of discounted Russian oil (which Trump has labeled as "financing Russia's Ukraine war"), and New Delhi's reluctance to fully decouple from Moscow and aggressively confront China in the Indo-Pacific. Analysts describe this as a "recalibration" of US South Asia strategy, prioritizing transactional deals with Pakistan to hedge against China's regional influence, while imposing punitive 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August 2025—upending two decades of strategic partnership built on the 2008 Civil Nuclear Deal. Indian officials view this as a "betrayal," especially after Trump's unsubstantiated claim of brokering the May 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire during Operation Sindoor, which equated the nuclear-armed rivals and prompted India to skip a G7 summit invite and deepen ties with Russia and China via BRICS expansions. Neutral observers, including from the Council on Foreign Relations, warn that this shift risks injecting "lasting volatility" into US-India ties, as Washington treats New Delhi more as a "client" than an ally, pushing India to recalibrate its multi-alignment strategy.
Trump's Open Alignment with Pakistan: Confirmation of US Policy Shift in South Asia with Backdoor Arms Flowing to Pakistan.
The warming US-Pakistan ties under Trump signal a broader South Asia policy realignment, with "backdoor" arms flows resuming via congressional exceptions and third-party funding, reversing first-term sanctions like the 2018 $300 million aid cut over terrorism concerns. In April 2025, the administration approved a $397 million security aid waiver for Pakistan, earmarked for counterterrorism but including F-16 sustainment—critics in India argue these jets, historically used in border skirmishes, could be repurposed against Indian assets amid ongoing Kashmir tensions. This follows a February 2025 $400 million release for F-16 avionics and spares, bypassing CAATSA restrictions tied to Pakistan's S-400 purchases from Russia. Speculation on Saudi-financed upgrades (e.g., a potential $500 million–$1 billion F-16 Block 52 package) emerged during Munir's July 2025 DC visit, framed as stabilizing Balochistan for US minerals access but raising fears in New Delhi of an anti-India tilt. SIPRI data shows Pakistan's arms imports up 61% (2020–2024), with US contributions at 5–7% but growing; Indian outlets decry this as "maverick powerplay," especially as the US simultaneously dangles F-35s to India while funding Pakistan's fleet.
Pakistan's Request for New F-16s by 2026
During Army Chief Asim Munir's April and July 2025 Washington visits, Pakistan formally lobbied for new F-16 deliveries and upgrades by 2026, including AIM-120D missiles to enhance air-to-air capabilities amid perceived Indian Rafale superiority. The push ties into a $397 million sustainment package already approved, with Trump administration officials signaling potential full Foreign Military Sales (FMS) revival if Pakistan improves counterterrorism intel-sharing. Pakistani Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar met Pentagon counterparts in July, sparking speculation on a $450–$500 million Block 52 deal, potentially operational by mid-2026. Analysts sees US exemptions as a "backdoor" to counter India's Su-30MKI buildup post-Sindoor.
Pakistan's Request for F-35 Stealth Jets (Trump Quipped)
In a lighthearted exchange during the September 26, 2025, White House lunch, Sharif and Munir raised advanced fighter access, prompting Trump to quip, "We'll make a deal—big league," while alluding to F-35s as a "stretch goal" if Pakistan diverts from Chinese J-35 purchases. No formal approval exists, but speculation surged after Trump's February 2025 F-35 offer to India (which New Delhi rebuffed, pivoting to Russia's Su-57), but India should be conscious of indirect transfers via Ankara. Pakistani media frames this as a "strategic handshake," though US officials condition it on Gaza mediation and anti-China hedging.
US Readiness to Aid Pakistan with Estimated $1 Billion in Various Aid by 2026 (e.g., Anti-Terrorist Operations)
Trump's reversal on aid—suspending most assistance in February 2025 before exempting $397 million for security—positions the US for up to $1 billion in FY2026 disbursements, including $200 million+ in Coalition Support Fund (CSF) reimbursements for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ops and MRAP vehicles. This builds on July 2025's $150 million counterterrorism package (ScanEagle drones, logistics), with projections tied to minerals pacts and Gaza talks. Historical Kerry-Lugar benchmarks ($1.5 billion annually pre-2018 cuts) inform estimates, but strings remain: funds escrow if terrorism lapses recur. Analysts predict escalation to $800 million–$1.2 billion if Pakistan hosts US bases for Afghan ops redux.
Pakistan's Offer of Rare Earth Minerals to Neutralize China's Controls
To counter Beijing's 80% global rare earth monopoly (critical for EV batteries, defense tech), Pakistan pitched its untapped Balochistan/Reko Diq reserves—estimated at 50 million tons of antimony, lithium, and copper—during the September 2025 White House meet, signing a $500 million MoU with Missouri-based US Strategic Metals for phased exports and joint exploration. Sharif and Munir presented samples to Trump, who called it "massive," framing it as a "strategic handshake" to diversify US supply chains amid China tariffs. Skeptics note unverified reserves and drilling shortfalls (e.g., no oil finds in parallel pacts), but the deal hedges US vulnerabilities, with Pakistan seeking tariff exemptions in return.
Sources
- Donald Trump Shifts U.S. Focus Toward Pakistan in 2025
- The US Is Rethinking the India-Pakistan Dynamic – The Diplomat
- Trump's renewed interest in Pakistan has India recalibrating China ties | Reuters
- Trump’s Tariffs on India Could Unravel Decades of Strategic Partnership | Council on Foreign Relations
- Donald Trump pivots to Pakistan in biggest US tilt since 1971 - The Times of India
- Trump's new South Asia play: Pakistan in, India out? - Modern Diplomacy
- Blindsided by Trump, Modi is learning hard lessons about India’s place in the new world order | The Guardian
- Trump's First 100 Days: Pakistan Gets $397 Million Exception in Security Aid
- F-16s for Pakistan, F-35s for India: Trump’s maverick powerplay in South Asia | Times of India
- After F-35 Offer To India, U.S. Helps Pakistan With F-16 Fighters
- US funds Pakistan F-16s, tightens grip on use against terror
- Pakistan’s F-16 push: Can US approve an AIM-120D arms deal?
- Trump's First 100 Days: Pakistan Gets $397 Million Exception in Security Aid
- Foreign aid to Pakistan - Wikipedia